The Key to Investing
The Fallacy of Diversification
Research has shown that during periods of market declines, the diversification advantages of an traditional asset allocation strategy fail.
When Diversification Fails is a paper that investigates this failing in greater detail.
According to the authors:
One of the most perplexing challenges in investment management is that diversification seems to disappear when investors need it the most.
The Exceptionalism of the Trend
The Golden Cross is a longer-term trend measure that utilizes the 200-day moving average.
Meb Faber's paper, A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation, illustrates how using this trend approach can -
Mitigate large losses to build greater wealth
The Advantage of Mitigating Losses
The ratio of up days to down days over the last five decades, through secular cycles, decades, and individual years, is reasonably close to 50%.
If losses are limited to 50% of a market decline, market yields can be attained with just 62% of gains.
An Effective Short-Wave Indicator
The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is the difference between a five-period and a thirty-five-period simple moving average.
When the oscillator begins to put in a series of lower highs while price puts in higher highs with high volume, a cycle change occurs.
Testing the Combined Short-Wave &
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI)
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)
The hypothetical performance results displayed do not represent actual trading performance; rather, they were obtained by applying the model retroactively, some of whose components might have been created with the benefit of hindsight.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) - BUY
iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) - SELL
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) - Underperform